The record
Every forecast published between July 24, 2026 and August 6, 2026, how each one resolved, and how much the model held back alongside them. Losing days and days with no output are included — a record that drops them is not a record.
Summary
Accuracy
73.7%
28–10 across 38 published forecasts
Held back
77%
127 of 165 modeled games never published
Forecasts published
38
Across 14 days
Days with no output
2
Nothing cleared threshold
By grade
Bar length is the size of each grade’s sample; the solid portion is the share that resolved correct. Every rate is shown with the count it came from.
In each bar the solid colored segment is the correct share and the faded segment is the incorrect share. This record covers 38 published forecasts across 14 days. That is a small sample and should be read as one.
Day by day
| Date | Published | Record | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24 | 4 | 3–175% | CorrectCorrectCorrectIncorrect |
| Jul 25 | 3 | 2–167% | CorrectCorrectIncorrect |
| Jul 26 | 2 | 2–0100% | CorrectCorrect |
| Jul 27 | 2 | 1–150% | CorrectIncorrect |
| Jul 28 | 5 | 2–340% | CorrectCorrectIncorrectIncorrectIncorrect |
| Jul 29 | 0 | — | Nothing cleared threshold |
| Jul 30 | 0 | — | Nothing cleared threshold |
| Jul 31 | 3 | 2–167% | CorrectCorrectIncorrect |
| Aug 1 | 4 | 4–0100% | CorrectCorrectCorrectCorrect |
| Aug 2 | 5 | 5–0100% | CorrectCorrectCorrectCorrectCorrect |
| Aug 3 | 1 | 1–0100% | Correct |
| Aug 4 | 2 | 2–0100% | CorrectCorrect |
| Aug 5 | 4 | 2–250% | CorrectCorrectIncorrectIncorrect |
| Aug 6 | 3 | 2–167% | CorrectCorrectIncorrect |
What this record does not tell you
- Thirty-eight forecasts over two weeks is a short window. A run of this length sits well within normal variance for any model, good or bad.
- The tiers have not been uniform. The densest-pattern grade is 2-3 over this window — it has not led the sample it was expected to lead, and it should not be read as the strongest output.
- Games the model logged as informational rather than publishing ran 68-59 over the same window, close to a coin flip. The published forecasts are the product; the rest is the model declining to say anything useful.
- The model forecasts game outcomes. It does not price markets and does not account for line movement or availability.
- Late scratches, weather, and lineup changes after publication are not re-modeled.
Past performance does not predict future results. Model accuracy varies by sample and by period, and any published record reflects a limited window. Accuracy is reported rather than financial return, because accuracy is exactly reproducible from the model’s own database and a return figure would not be.